Dalian soybean oil futures closed slightly lower, dragged down by the decline in the external market.
On February 4, Dalian soybean oil futures opened lower, fluctuated and rebounded in early trading, fell back in the afternoon and closed lower in late trading. The main contract shrinks, lightens the position and closes the Yang line.
On Thursday, February 4th, the main soybean oil futures contract Y1009 of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) opened at 7,248 yuan/ton, and closed at 7,000 270 yuan/ton, down by 12 yuan/ton, with the highest price at 7,288 yuan/ton and the lowest price at 7,218 yuan/ton, with a turnover of 526,208 lots and a position of 674,000.
On Monday (February 1st), the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil market closed slightly higher, mainly due to the strength of international crude oil futures. At the close, CBOT soybean oil rose by 0.04 to 0.06 cents, of which the March contract rose by 0.04 cents to close at 36.19 cents/pound; May contract rose 0.04 cents to close at 36.65 cents/pound; July contract rose 0.05 cents to close at 37.08 cents/pound. Analysts said that the international crude oil futures strengthened, the stock market rose and the dollar weakened, which supported the soybean oil price.
On Wednesday (February 3), the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil market closed down, mainly due to the weakening of international crude oil futures. At the close, CBOT soybean oil contracts all fell by 0.57 cents, of which the March contract closed at 36.90 cents/pound; May contract closed at 37.36 cents/pound; The July contract closed at 37.80 cents/pound. Analysts said that the weakening of international crude oil futures, the strengthening of the US dollar, the collapse of soybeans in neighboring pools and the prospect of high soybean yield in South America have all had a negative impact on soybean oil prices.
Informa raised its forecast of soybean production in Brazil in 2009/10 to a record 66.5 million tons, 500,000 tons more than its January forecast. Argentina’s soybean production is predicted to be 54 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons compared with the January forecast. On February 4th, the cost of soybeans delivered by the United States in April 2010 to China port was 3,382 yuan/ton; The cost of soybeans delivered from South America in June 2010 to China port is 3,253 yuan/ton. On January 28th, the National Grain and Oil Information Center released the report "China Agricultural Products Market Trend Index" for the week ending January 27th. The demand trend index of China soybean oil market was 46.7, which was 4.1 lower than the index of 50.8 in the previous week, higher than the demand index of 45.0 in the same period of 2009, and fell for three consecutive weeks, which was below the neutral demand level of 50.
Analysts pointed out that the decline in the US soybean market put pressure on the domestic oil market. At present, the domestic oil supply is sufficient, and the price of edible vegetable oil has been lowered, so the futures rebound will face greater pressure. In addition, China Grain Reserve will sell the reserved soybeans in 2008, which will bring pressure to the domestic soybean market. In the short term, the domestic oil market will maintain a low consolidation trend.
Another analyst pointed out that the No.1 Document of the Central Committee pointed out that the policy of purchasing and storing oilseeds will continue to be adopted in due course, which will restrict the space for oil futures to fall.
Dalian palm oil futures rose and fell, and the external market fluctuated and rose.
On February 4th, Dalian palm oil futures opened lower, followed by bilateral shocks, and the trend was weak. At the end of the session, the main contract shrank and increased its position, closing a small negative star.
On Thursday, February 4th, the main contract 1009 of palm oil futures of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) opened at 6,662 yuan/ton, with the highest at 6,694 yuan/ton and the lowest at 6,608 yuan/ton, and closed at 6,648 yuan/ton, down by 26 yuan/ton, with a turnover of 447,720 lots and a position of 289,572.
On February 4th, Malaysia’s BMD crude palm oil futures market fluctuated and rose at midday, due to the decline in output, inventory and strong demand. The benchmark April crude palm oil contract closed up by RM 4 to RM 2,502/ton. Citigroup raised its crude palm oil price forecast to $760-$800/ton, as demand growth may exceed supply.
Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture officials said that Indonesia hopes to reduce its tariff on palm oil in Pakistan to the same level as Malaysia to boost palm oil exports.
On February 4th, NYMEX crude oil futures consolidated in a narrow range around $77/barrel in Asian electronic trading on the 4th, after falling overnight, due to the report of the US Department of Energy, which showed that US crude oil inventories increased more than expected in recent weeks. According to the report of the U.S. Department of Energy, as of January 29th, the U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 2.32 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.31 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 948,000 barrels. At the same time, the capacity utilization rate of refineries was 77.7%, the lowest level since at least 1989. Analysts pointed out that the refinery capacity utilization rate is really low, which indicates that the demand for crude oil is not strong at present.
Analysts pointed out that NYMEX crude oil futures stopped rising on the 3 rd and BMD crude palm oil futures opened higher and went higher. Depressed by the strong dollar, the domestic oil futures price rebounded under pressure after opening lower on the 4 th. The expectation of high soybean yield in South America is an important reason for the correction of oil futures price. At present, the three major domestic oil contracts rebound near the golden section. In the context of inflation, the market is bullish. Analysts of Shihua Financial News believe that Malaysia’s palm export market has seen a substantial growth month-on-month, which is conducive to the trend of the external market. However, investors should not be too bearish on oil. It is expected that even palm oil will fluctuate and gain momentum, waiting for the external market to boost.
Another analyst said that in the medium and long term, the overall tight supply pattern of the oil market has not changed. The weather in the later period determines the yield and quality of soybeans in South America, the planting area of soybeans competing with other crops and other factors. It is expected that the competition for long and short oil will intensify in the later period. From the disk, even the palm oil range fluctuated and the MACD green column shortened, which is expected to test the support of the 5-day moving average in the near future.
Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures closed slightly lower in international crude oil correction.
On February 4, Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures opened higher, fluctuated between the 5 th and 10 th moving averages, and rose slightly in the late session. At the end of the session, the main contract positions all fell, closing the shadow line.
On Thursday, February 4th, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE) opened the rapeseed oil futures contract 1009 with an opening price of 7,944 yuan/ton and a closing price of 7,916 yuan/ton, down by 20 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 7,944 yuan/ton and a minimum of 7,500 tons, with a turnover of 26,450 lots and a position of 59,630.
On February 3rd, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed down, driven by the selling of CBOT soybean and soybean oil futures. March contract closed down 3.20 Canadian dollars to 377.00 Canadian dollars/metric ton. According to industry insiders, the overnight rise of BMD palm oil and European sunflower seed futures pushed the morning trend of ICE rapeseed, but the afternoon buying was weak and the futures price would turn sharply.
India’s Khandelia Oil Company said that due to the weather and other factors, it is expected that India’s rapeseed production in 2010 may be higher than that predicted in January.
On February 4th, NYMEX crude oil futures consolidated in a narrow range around $77/barrel in Asian electronic trading on the 4th, after falling overnight, due to the report of the US Department of Energy, which showed that US crude oil inventories increased more than expected in recent weeks. According to the report of the U.S. Department of Energy, as of January 29th, the U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 2.32 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.31 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 948,000 barrels. At the same time, the capacity utilization rate of refineries was 77.7%, the lowest level since at least 1989. Analysts pointed out that the refinery capacity utilization rate is really low, which indicates that the demand for crude oil is not strong at present.
Analysts pointed out that NYMEX crude oil futures stopped rising on the 3 rd and ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed down. Depressed by the strong dollar, the domestic oil futures price rebounded under pressure after opening lower on the 4 th. The expectation of high soybean yield in South America is an important reason for the correction of oil futures price. At present, the three major domestic oil contracts rebound near the golden section. However, in the context of inflation, the market sentiment is not diminished. Analysts of Shihua Financial News believe that the early decline of Zheng Caiyou was mainly dragged down by the commodity market, and the introduction of policies such as the No.1 Document of the Central Committee constituted a positive trend. It is expected that under the support of the spot, Zheng Caiyou may continue to be under pressure in the short term.
Another analyst said that from the current situation of the oil market, the demand for oil before the Spring Festival is limited. From the disk, Zheng Caiyou is still in the double-top downward channel, and the possibility of further decline is not ruled out.
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